The Record
- 2024: Kail 24,702 (68.93%), Ashlee Caul 11,135 (31.07%). 35,837 votes cast.
- 2022: Kail unopposed. 22,375 votes cast, a drop of more than 13,000 from the prior presidential year.
- 2020: Kail 24,558 (70.85%), Bob Williams Sr. 10,102 (29.15%). 34,660 votes cast.
- 2018: Kail 15,393 (61.5%) in his first run, against Terri Mitko. His weakest showing.
- The district is 32 municipalities: 17 in Beaver County, 15 in Washington County, verified against Census TIGERweb boundaries.
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The 2018 midterm is the only cycle in which the seat was held under 62 percent, and it is the closest analogue to 2026. Midterm dropoff in this district has run above 13,000 votes off the presidential-year total.
Audience
Persuasion targets are moderate and unaffiliated voters in the Beaver County boroughs. Turnout targets are 2018 and 2020 Democratic voters who sat out 2022.
Geography
Beaver County: Beaver, Brighton, Industry, Midland, Ohioville, Vanport and the surrounding river communities. Washington County: Burgettstown, Midway, Claysville, Hanover and Smith townships.
Sources
- Wikipedia, "Pennsylvania House of Representatives, District 15." Compiled election returns, 2018 through 2024.
- Ballotpedia, "Joshua Kail." Election history and term dates.
- US Census Bureau TIGERweb, Legislative and County Subdivision layers. Source of the 32-municipality list.